source : <a href='http://www.reuters.com/article/china/id ... F420090423' target='_blank'>http://www.reuters.com/article/china/id ... 0090423</a>
Thu Apr 23, 2009 6:58am EDT
By Tony Munroe and Parvathy Ullatil
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Investors are bracing for the sale of up to $4 billion worth of shares in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China when lockups on strategic investors lapse next week, but a deal is expected to be less disruptive than previous such sales at rival banks.
Goldman Sachs, Allianz and American Express can trade part of their stakes in ICBC, the world's most valuable bank, starting Tuesday.
All three have said they would prefer to sell the shares through private placement, and many in the market expect the shares to be sold in a negotiated transaction to investors including mainland Chinese corporate buyers.
A private sale would placate officials in China.
Beijing was miffed when Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of America dumped shares in Bank of China and China Construction Bank, respectively, when lockups expired earlier this year.
"It all comes down to politics," said one dealmaker, who was not authorized to talk media on the record.
Goldman Sachs has already taken steps to appease Chinese officials unhappy with the hasty exits of battered western banks from supposedly strategic stakes in mainland lenders.
While Goldman was originally free to sell half its 4.93 percent stake this month and the rest in October, last month it pledged to keep 80 percent of that stake until April 2010.
The bank also said at the time that it was in no rush to sell the 20 percent stake. It declined to comment on Thursday, as did Allianz, while American Express could not immediately be reached.
Improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market in recent weeks should help smooth the sale of a big chunk of ICBC stock. Daily turnover in Hong Kong jumped to more than HK$70 billion last week, compared with less than HK$45 billion in the first quarter.
"The recent rally in ICBC shares may give Goldman and others enough incentive to cash out but as long as there are enough buyers, it won't upset the market too much," said Peter Pak, vice president at BOCI Research.
Some of Goldman's stake is held by investment funds that it manages, and some watchers said it is possible the entire 20 percent of its stake will not be sold.
Allianz and American Express are seen as keen to offload their shares.
"Goldman is not the major worry, it's the other two that are most likely to sell," said Patrick Shum, chief portfolio strategist with Karl Thomson Securities.
He said a private sale at a discount could still hurt the price of ICBC shares, which have rallied 46 percent from an early March low.
"Even if the shares are sold off-market, if the transaction price is below the market price it will put a good deal of pressure on ICBC shares," Shum said.
($1=HK$7.
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bracing for
指（为接下去一周抛出中国工商银行的股份）做好准备。该段中涉及到lockup、lapse、disruptive这几个词，分别指锁定（期）、（权利）终止或结束、混乱动荡。在金融危机下，美欧等战略投资者（机构）欲从境外将资产变现调回国内用于支付债务或利息，或进行与资金运作有关的企业行为，对战略投资者而言，投资要带来的利益是长期性和结构性的，只有在万不得已的情况下才会要求变现，但由于这类投资数额极大，因此通常会导致有价证券市场等资金市场波动，带来混乱和损失。在工行股票将被抛出的消息面下，此次锁定期后的交易会带来一定负面影响，因此投资人希望其后果将具有“较小危害”
股票的抛售所引发的价格跌势除了对原战略投资人不利以外，也会对持有机构产生不利影响，更由于工行属四大国有银行，因此以工行之远水救美国近火的“割肉”行径并不被中国政府看好。虽然希望持有工行股份的内地企业机构众多，但高盛、德国安联、美国运通这三家机构出于某种因素的考虑，还是采用私售的方式以免招惹了国内管理层。注意placate的意思，与前文disruptive对应，一方面是锁定期过了，欧美战略投资人终于可以变卖手中股票抽调资金回国救灾，甚幸之情表于brace；二是为免触怒中国方面的管理机构而小心翼翼（后一段介绍了原因，即之前苏格兰皇家银行和美国银行早先甩卖中行和建行的股票使北京不高兴）。
有交易者认为这最终还是政治问题而非商业问题，但此人并不愿意公开谈论及此（not authorized to talk media on the record 指未被授权将讲话公开发布）。
报导的余下部分则主要在为战略投资者的抛售行为做解释，即香港市场的整体状况正在改善(improved liquidity and daily turnover)，但笔锋后却耗数段文字描述了高盛的顾全大局(pledged to keep...until April 2010 while it was originally free to sell, in no rush to sell, entire 20 percent will not be sold, not the major worry)，并将之与另两家投资者进行对比（Allianz和美国运通正keen to offload their shares，注意其中的keen和offload所表达出来的含义），并借高信证券的一名战略分析师之口对抛售做出了预测，称即便以折价交易(a private sale at a discount could still hurt the price of ICBC)甚至是离岸低价出手(sold off-market and transaction price is blow the market price)，都会对ICBC的股价产生不良影响。
通过对关键词Karl Thomson Securities（高信证券）搜索，发现其隶属于高信集团控股有限公司（http://www.ktg.com.hk/chi/index.jsp），主要业务除资产管理以外，还与美国高盛一样涉足石油业务。再联想高盛在金融危机之前对石油的操纵和其政府背景，可能容易猜想到此报导背后的意图。
ref link
<a href='http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2009- ... 069517.htm' target='_blank'>新华网、广州日报3月底新闻：传高盛考虑出售工行H股 安联和运通也在考虑售股</a>
<a href='http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090326/bch081609.asp' target='_blank'>高盛同意延长所持工行股份锁定期</a>
<a href='http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/20090324/bch071613.asp' target='_blank'>高盛可能出售所持部分工行股权</a>
<a href='http://www.china-cbn.com/s/n/000002/200 ... 3897.shtml' target='_blank'>第一财经：安联和运通通过私募配售方式转让工行股份</a>